Democrats put Congressional District 16 ‘in play’, but so far money tells its own story.
By Noah Bookstein
Original Air Date: October 1, 2026
Host: With just five weeks until Election Day, national Democrats are watching Florida’s newly drawn 16th Congressional District. The co-chair of the Democrats’ “Red to Blue” campaign was at a Sarasota fundraiser, but the Kelly Kirschner campaign has yet to be elevated to the next level. Our reporter Noah Bookstein is taking a close look.
Underwood, Kirschner during the Lakewood Ranch fundraiser. | Photo: Bookstein
NB: Illinois Rep. Lauren Underwood was in Lakewood Ranch Sunday evening, headlining a fundraiser for Democrat Kelly Kirschner. Underwood, a nurse, became the youngest Black woman ever elected to Congress in 2018. She now co-chairs Red to Blue, a high-level fundraising and support program of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, or DCCC, that targets key Republican-held seats.
Lauren Underwood: Now that we have a whole crop of Democratic nominees, people like Kelly, then now I’m their coach to get them through Election Day.
NB: Kirschner, a former Sarasota mayor, faces Republican Sydney Gruters to replace retiring Congressman Vern Buchanan in a district redrawn this year. The DCCC has named the six-county FL-16 a “district in play,” but it’s not on “Red to Blue” yet, which makes a visit from the program’s co-chair a key stop.
David de la Fuente, a senior political analyst for the think tank Third Way, used to work for the DCCC. He told WSLR News that “at this point in the election cycle when all states are post-primary, the Red to Blue designation should be viewed as races the DCCC and other outside partners are most likely to spend their finite resources on, whereas Districts in Play are reach opportunities that could be flipped on at any given notice. Many voters are still just starting to pay attention to this election so even a late investment in any district could make a big impact.”
Underwood told WSLR News national Democrats are looking at open seats when they consider districts in play.
LU: This is a district that was newly drawn after the redistricting, which means that it’s an open seat, we give real strong consideration. The D-trip gives real strong consideration to open seats, and then the margins, you know, past performance was such that it puts it in the range of competitive in this cycle, where we know that President Trump’s unpopularity is at historic lows.
NB: At the fundraiser, Underwood also took aim at Gruters.
The DCCC is a ‘stickler on fundraising’.
LU: This woman, Sydney Gruders, is being backed by her husband, the chairman of the Republican National Committee, and his dark money donors and friends.
NB: Federal filings show that through July 29, before the primary ended, Gruters raised over a million dollars, roughly four times Kirschner’s $290,000. Her money leans on big checks from executives and business owners, including developer Carlos Beruff, and 74 donors gave the $7,000 maximum. As of late July, Kirschner’s base is different: most of his donors are retirees, one-third gave $250 or less, and only four maxed out.
LU: This is the last and a quarter deadline before the election because we only got 37 days. Okay, so there is no ‘Oh, I’ll give later’. This is later.
NB: The quarter closed September 30th, and campaigns must report the most recent batch of contributions to the Federal Elections Commission by October 15.
Underwood said the DCCC tracks the campaign through regional staff.
LU: We understand how fundraising is going, and I know it can be hard. You know, when you’re trying to raise the resources to get on air and stay on air, right? It feels like a lot of pressure, and so we just want to make sure that he’s hitting goals and is staying encouraged and putting in the hours, the D-Trip is kind of a stickler about doing hours of fundraising calls every week.
NB: The Kirschner campaign said the DCCC has not sent money but has provided fundraising help, including digital infrastructure.
Three House candidates in Florida have so far been elevated to the ‘Red to Blue’ level of support.
Political Action Committees, or PACs, can give a campaign thousands of dollars per election, or spend unlimited amounts on ads, as long as they do not coordinate with the candidate.
Through July 29, Gruters has received more than $100,000 from PAC contributions, including from a SpaceX PAC and other Republican campaigns, such as House Speaker Mike Johnson’s. Gruters is benefiting from over $1.5 million in spending from outside groups for TV ads and mailers. According to federal filings, Kirschner has not received PAC money and no outside groups have weighed in to spend on ads for him. He told supporters what it takes for him just to stay on TV.
Kelly Kirschner: It’s about $165,000 a week between now and election day, just for us to be putting our message out on TV and making sure that we are getting to this six-county region.
NB: Underwood told WSLR News she understands local voters are being flooded with messages.
LU: What’s exciting to me is that the Florida voter understands their power, very sophisticated. And so you know there, you guys are being inundated with a lot of political messages right now. The ads have already started, the texts have already started, the mail has already started, right? And people are starting to make choices, but they’re able to filter through some of the messages, right? They’re talking about how his opponent has some signs at gas stations. Well, that doesn’t erase the fact that gas prices are at record highs, and you still can’t afford to fill up your tank.
NB: She called the new map a power grab and said the redistricting could backfire.
LU: These folks in Tallahassee thought they were doing something, drawing a map. But I’m here from Illinois to remind you what you already know, which is that maps don’t vote, people vote.
NB: Florida Democrats are calling for more help. At a Tampa Tiger Bay Club event last week, gubernatorial nominee David Jolly said he needs “the national Democratic Party to come into Florida and start spending money.”
This cycle could be different. Trump’s popularity is lagging even among Florida Republicans, and Byron Donalds recently scrubbed references to him from his website. Prominent Manatee County Republicans, including Dan Miller and George Kruse, have backed Kirschner, as internal polling shows a tight race, despite the funding gap.
Money is not always decisive. An internal poll commissioned by the Kirschner campaign shows a tight race.
Money is not always decisive. Angie Nixon won Florida’s Democratic Senate nomination despite being outraised roughly 16 to one, a win Democrats credit to her organizing work. Underwood sees that on the ground in Florida.
LU: We’re excited that candidates like Kelly are building these people-powered grassroots campaigns where the energy is palpable. They’re doing the organizing work.
NB: She said she will be available to Kirschner through the rest of the race.
LU: It’s literally being a partner, being a coach, checking in. How are things going? What do you need? That kind of thing.
NB: Reporting for WSLR News, Noah Bookstein.
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