Midterm results: Blue wave touches Florida, but misses Sarasota

Amendment 3 passes, raising questions about local finances.

By Johannes Werner

On high voter turnout – a record-breaking 67.3 percent in Sarasota County – the national Blue Wave barely touched Florida, and completely missed Sarasota and Manatee counties.

One of the most consequential votes in the state on Nov. 3 was not for a candidate, but for a ballot question: Amendment 3, which will enshrine a substantial property tax cut in the state constitution, passed with 62 percent of the vote, beyond the 60 percent it needed.

An economic analysis by the state itself predicts that cities and counties could lose nearly $5 billion in revenues as a result. That would rise to $9 billion the year after, and end up having a recurring impact of nearly $12 billion every year.

It’s not clear what will make up for that shortfall, if cities and counties want to maintain current levels of service.

Byron and Erika Donalds in Sarasota Monday. | Photo: Ramon Lopez

Republicans won all the statewide races. Byron Donalds will be the first Black governor in Florida’s history, after prevailing over David Jolly by a narrow 1.3 percent margin. Attorney General James Uthmeier beat Democratic opponent Jose Javier Rodriguez by 15 points. Blaise Ingoglia won the Chief Financial Officer race against Annette Taddeo by less than 2 percent.

In the race for one of Florida’s two U.S. Senate seats, incumbent Republican Ashley Moody won against progressive Angie Nixon by a margin of 2.9 percent. Sarasota youth activist Zander Moricz, who worked on Nixon’s campaign, said on social media that Nixon will run again in 2028.

“I know tonight sucks, but the opportunity for her to win in 2028 is real, it’s exciting, and it’s dependent on the hard work we put in,” Moricz said.

Sydney Gruters, campaigning with Byron Donalds. | Photo: Ramon Lopez

U.S. House of Representatives races were mixed. Tampa U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor, one of the main targets of the recent Republican redistricting, prevailed easily over her Republican challenger, by a 4.3 percent margin. Just to the south of Castor’s district, Democrat Kelly Kirschner did not fare as well. In his race against Sydney Gruters, wife of the Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters, Kirschner lost by 4.2 percent. And in the next district to the south, Rep. Greg Steube cruised to re-election by an 18 percent margin, after minimal campaigning and no debating.

For U.S. House of Representatives race results, go here.

James Buchanan (r.) easily won the state senate seat for Florida in a three-way race. | Photo: Terri-Anne Bajorek

While all Republican candidates for the state legislature in Sarasota and Manatee won handily, the days of the Republican supermajority in Tallahassee are over. Sixteen seats in the state House are shifting towards Democrats, stripping the Republicans of their complete control of the lower chamber. Also, in the state Senate, the Republicans lost their supermajority by one seat. One of the key races in the battle played out in state Senate District 14, which centers on Hillsborough County. The rematch between Democratic state Sen. Brian Nathan and Republican Josie Tomkow ended in a clearer than expected 52.24 percent to 47.76 percent victory for Nathan.  The Democrat, a long-time union organizer, first won his seat in a special election earlier this year, staging a major upset.

With the end of the Republican supermajority in the state legislature, Democrats have become a power factor again.

For results of Florida House seat races, check here, for Florida Senate results, click here.

In local races, Republican Jim DeNiro easily prevailed over Democrat Julie London by a 13 percent margin. DeNiro had to overcome questions about family links to the construction industry, and developer and PAC money in his campaign. His Democratic opponent had been endorsed by MAGA Patriot co-founder Conni Brunni.

Heidi Brandt, giving her victory speech at the Republican election watch party. | Photo: Terri-Anne Bajorek

In the sole run-off race for Sarasota School Board, Heidi Brandt won against Jimmy Glover, also by a difference of 13 percent. After a sweep by non-conservative school board candidates, she had positioned herself as the “sole conservative voice” on the school board. Glover, who came out first in a three-way primary, would have been the first Black member of the Sarasota School Board ever.

“For more than a century, Sarasota County has had a certain picture of what school board leadership looks like,” he said on a Facebook post Wednesday morning. “Yesterday, that picture remained unchanged. But history doesn’t stand still, and neither does progress.”

On the Charter Review Board, none of the three Democratic candidates got elected, with voters checking the boxes along party lines.

Meanwhile, in a three-way runoff election, City of Sarasota voters picked Jen Ahearn-Koch and Flo Entler for the two at-large seats on the city commission. Incumbent Ahearn garnered 40.7% of the vote, second-placed Entler 35.08%. John Harshman ended up a distant third, with 24.2%.

For Sarasota County elections results, click here.

For Manatee County elections results, click here.

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