The once-hot Southwest Florida real estate market is now worst in the nation.
By Derek Gilliam
Original Air Date: April 16, 2025
Host: Home values in Sarasota and Manatee counties are falling faster than almost anywhere else in the country. This signals a sharp reversal in one of the nation’s most overheated housing markets and raises concerns about the broader economic health of the Suncoast. Derek Gilliam with the Suncoast Searchlight reports.
Derek Gilliam: Angie Ramos is concerned.
The Coldwell Banker Realtor has five listings that have sat for months. Buyer interest is at a minimum. And the stock market has been turbulent.
“We are just flooded with inventory,” she said.
What she’s experiencing isn’t uncommon along the Suncoast.
Sarasota County saw a 7% decline in home values over the past year, with Manatee County close behind at 5%. That’s according to the latest data from Zillow Home Value Index. DeSoto County’s home values decreased the least in our region, posting a 1% drop. The index represents the “typical” home value in a region by calculating the weighted average of the middle third of homes, according to Zillow.
Neighboring Charlotte County recorded the steepest drop of any large county in the nation—those with 50,000 or more inhabitants—at 8%.
For sale in Sarasota. Photo: Emily LeCoz/Suncoast Searchlight
The trend across Sarasota and Manatee is part of the same regional slump and stands in stark contrast to much of the rest of the United States, where home values have remained flat or continued to rise.
On average, counties across the U.S. posted a 4.5% increase in home values over the past year.
The local figures mark a dramatic shift from just two years ago, when the Suncoast ranked among the hottest housing markets in the United States. Home prices surged by double digits annually between 2020 and 2022 as buyers from across the country flocked to the region during the pandemic-era migration boom.
Now, after three years of rapid appreciation, the market is coming back down—and quickly.
Chris Jones, an economist at the University of South Florida and founder of Florida Economic Advisors, has been warning about unsustainable price growth since 2022. That year, home values in the region rose by more than 30%.
Chris Jones: We’ve seen prices get out of control over the course of the last seven to eight years. We haven’t had a housing bubble like this since the bubble prior to the ‘08-’09 market collapse.
DG: Unlike that crash, which was driven by predatory lending and financial speculation, today’s downturn stems from a mix of affordability fatigue, economic uncertainty and shifts in buyer behavior. That’s particularly the case among the retirees and investment-driven buyers who dominate the Suncoast real estate landscape.
This region is perhaps more vulnerable than most, Jones said. That’s because a lot of the housing demand is tied to what he called “lifetime wealth” and investment. This includes not just retirees, but also seasonal residents and buyers whose purchasing power depends on the strength of their portfolios rather than their paychecks. 
CJ: One of the first things that happens is, when consumers don’t feel good about the future, they put off making big ticket expenditures—things like homes, autos—stuff like that.”
With inflation concerns, higher mortgage rates and shaky consumer confidence, there’s little to suggest a quick turnaround.
A national survey from the University of Michigan shows consumer confidence has taken a sharp hit, with sentiment falling for the third straight month in February. The index dropped 12%—its steepest decline since the early days of the pandemic.
Jones said he does not expect consumers to feel more certain about the economy anytime soon as President Donald Trump’s tariff policy injects more chaos into the picture.
Reporting for the Suncoast Searchlight, this is Derek Gilliam.
For the full report, go to suncoastsearchlight.org/sarasota-manatee-home-values-tumble.
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